Recent Additions

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at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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Last
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 Featured Items  
UPDATEDHalf & Half: Why Rowing Works2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
UPDATEDSecular Cycle Dashboard2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDThis Secular Bear…So FarDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
 Deja Vu  
 Secular Bear Example July 5, 2012
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
UPDATEDSecular Cycles2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDSecular Cycles Explained2014Jan 6, 2015
 Stock Market Matrix2013Feb 6, 2014
 Long-Term Returns  
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Shiller Shortfall  
UPDATEDStock Market Yo-Yo2014Jan 6, 2015
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
UPDATEDGeneration Returns2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDDistorted Averages2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDComponents of Return2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDGazing at the Future2014Jan 6, 2015
 Waiting for Average Oct 4, 2013
 Financial Physics  
 Dissecting Returns  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2013Feb 6, 2014
 Financial Physics2013Feb 6, 2014
 P/E Ratio  
 Nightmare on Wall Street Feb 6, 2014
UPDATEDSecular Stock Market P/E2014Jan 6, 2015
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
UPDATEDP/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDP/E Ratios & Inflation2014Jan 20, 2015
 The Truth About P/Es  
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
 Earnings & Economy  
 Earnings Trends: History & FutureSep 2014Oct 6, 2014
 Converging on the Horizon Feb 6, 2014
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 EPS Reality2013Feb 6, 2014
 It’s Not the Economy2013Feb 6, 2014
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDStock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
UPDATEDVolatility in PerspectiveDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDSignificant Swings2014Jan 6, 2015
 Investment Implications  
UPDATEDHalf & Half: Why Rowing Works2014Jan 6, 2015
 Game Changer April 5, 2013
 Looming Crisis  
 Row, Not Sail  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Impact of Rebalancing  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
UPDATEDUp & Down Capture2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDUp & Down Capture Graph2014Jan 20, 2015
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 The Impact of Losses  

Interest Rates

  Updated
Through
Last
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 Interest Rate History  
UPDATEDBond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDThe Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDThe 10-Year Treasury Note2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDThe 6/50 Rule2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDInterest Rates & Inflation2014Jan 20, 2015
 Dynamic History2013Feb 6, 2014
 Investment Implications  
UPDATEDLadder in a Bear2014Jan 20, 2015
 Surfing the Roll  
UPDATEDClimb the Ladder2014Jan 20, 2015
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

  Updated
Through
Last
Update
 Economic Growth  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?  
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2013Feb 6, 2014
 GDP & Economic Productivity2013Feb 6, 2014
 GDP & Population Growth2013Feb 6, 2014
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2013Feb 6, 2014
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2013Feb 6, 2014

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Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

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