Recent Additions

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at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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Last
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 Featured Items  
RecentGroundhog Decade For Stocks  
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportDec 2011Jan 5, 2012
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
UPDATEDStock Market Matrix2011Jan 31, 2012
UPDATEDSecular Cycles Explained2011Jan 5, 2012
UPDATEDSecular Cycles2011Jan 21, 2012
 Living Through The Last Secular Bear  
 Secular Bear Example  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-term Returns  
RecentGroundhog Decade For Stocks  
 Waiting For Average May 2010
UPDATEDGazing at the Future2011Jan 5, 2012
UPDATEDComponents of Return2011Jan 9, 2012
UPDATEDDistorted Averages2011Jan 5, 2012
UPDATEDGeneration Returns2011Jan 5, 2012
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
UPDATEDStock Market Yo-Yo2011Jan 5, 2012
 Shiller’s Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
UPDATEDFinancial Physics2011Jan 31, 2012
UPDATEDCrestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2011Jan 31, 2012
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportDec 2011Jan 5, 2012
 The Truth About P/Es  
UPDATEDP/E Ratios & Inflation2011Jan 21, 2012
UPDATEDP/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2011Jan 9, 2012
 Natural Pinnacle To P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
RecentConverging on the Horizon  
RecentBeyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
UPDATEDIt’s Not the Economy2011Jan 31, 2012
UPDATEDEPS Reality2011Jan 31, 2012
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDSignificant Swings2011Jan 5, 2012
 Volatility in Perspective2010Jan 2011
 A Minsky Review  
 Calm Before the Storm  
UPDATEDStock Market Returns & Volatility2011Jan 9, 2012
 Investment Implications  
 Row, Not Sail  
 The Impact of Losses  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Up & Down Capture Graph  
 Up & Down Capture  
 Destitute At 80: Retiring In Secular Cycles  
 Impact of Rebalancing  
 Rowing vs. the Rollercoaster  

Interest Rates

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 Interest Rate History  
UPDATEDInterest Rates & Inflation2011Jan 21, 2012
UPDATEDThe 6/50 Rule2011Jan 9, 2012
UPDATEDThe 10-Year Treasury Note2011Jan 9, 2012
UPDATEDThe Yield Curve, The Fed, & P/Es2011Jan 9, 2012
UPDATEDBond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2011Jan 21, 2012
UPDATEDDynamic History2011Jan 31, 2012
 Investment Implications  
 Climb the Ladder2010Jan 2011
 Surfing The Roll  
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

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 Economic Growth  
UPDATEDGDP – Real Economic Growth2010sJan 31, 2012
UPDATEDGDP & Population Growth2010sJan 31, 2012
UPDATEDGDP & Economic Productivity2010sJan 31, 2012
 General Economy  
UPDATEDGDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2011Jan 31, 2012
UPDATEDGDP – Nominal & EPS2011Jan 31, 2012

Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

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