Recent Additions

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at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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 Featured Items  
NEWEconomic Cycle Dashboard  
RECENTAre We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportJun 2016Jul 6, 2016
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
RECENTAre We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
 Stock Market Matrix2015Feb 8, 2016
 Secular Cycles Explained2015Jan 6, 2016
 Secular Cycles2015Jan 25, 2016
 Secular Cycle Dashboard2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATEDThis Secular Bear…So FarJun 2016Jul 6, 2016
 Secular Bear Example July 5, 2012
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Components of Return2015Jan 6, 2016
RECENTWaiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Generation Returns2015Jan 6, 2016
 Distorted Averages2015Jan 6, 2016
 Gazing at the Future2015Jan 6, 2016
 Stock Market Yo-Yo2015Jan 6, 2016
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2015Feb 8, 2016
 Financial Physics2015Feb 8, 2016
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
 Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportJun 2016Jul 6, 2016
 P/E: Forward Operating Averages 122015Jan 25, 2016
 Nightmare on Wall Street2015Feb 8, 2016
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E Ratios & Inflation2015Jan 25, 2016
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2015Jan 6, 2016
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureJun 2016Jul 6, 2016
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
 EPS Reality2015Feb 8, 2016
 It’s Not the Economy2015Feb 8, 2016
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleJun 2016Jul 6, 2016
 Significant Swings2015Jan 6, 2016
 Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
 Exit from Wonderland  
 Half & Half: Why Rowing Works2015Jan 6, 2016
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
 Up & Down Capture Graph2015Jan 25, 2016
 Up & Down Capture2015Jan 25, 2016
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

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 Interest Rate History  
 Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2015Jan 25, 2016
 The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2015Jan 25, 2016
 The 6/50 Rule2015Jan 25, 2016
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2015Jan 25, 2016
 Interest Rates & Inflation2015Jan 25, 2016
 Dynamic History2015Feb 8, 2016
 Investment Implications  
 Ladder in a Bear2015Jan 25, 2016
 Climb the Ladder2015Jan 25, 2016
 Surfing the Roll  
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

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 Economic Growth  
NEWEconomic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2015Feb 8, 2016
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2015Feb 8, 2016
 GDP & Economic Productivity2015Feb 8, 2016
 GDP & Population Growth2015Feb 8, 2016
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2015Feb 8, 2016
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2015Feb 8, 2016

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Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

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