Recent Additions

Suggestions Welcome

at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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Last
Update
 Featured Items  
 Nightmare On Wall Street  
POPULAR!Secular Stock Market P/E2012Jan 7, 2013
UPDATED!The P/E ReportMar 2012April 5, 2013
NEW!Game Changer April 5, 2013
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Stock Market Matrix2012Feb 4, 2013
 Secular Cycles Explained2012Jan 7, 2013
 Secular Cycles2012Jan 21, 2013
 Living Through The Last Secular Bear  
 Secular Bear Example July 5, 2012
UPDATED!This Secular Bear…So FarMar 2013April 5, 2013
 Deja Vu  
 Long-term Returns  
 Groundhog Decade For Stocks  
 Waiting For Average May 2010
 Gazing at the Future2012Jan 7, 2013
 Components of Return2012Jan 7, 2013
 Distorted Averages2012Jan 7, 2013
 Generation Returns2012Mar 12, 2013
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Stock Market Yo-Yo2012Jan 7, 2013
 Shiller’s Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Financial Physics2012Feb 4, 2013
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2012Feb 4, 2013
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
 Nightmare On Wall Street  
POPULAR!Secular Stock Market P/E2012Jan 7, 2013
UPDATED!The P/E ReportMar 2012April 5, 2013
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E Ratios & Inflation2012Jan 21, 2013
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2012Jan 7, 2013
 Natural Pinnacle To P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Converging on the Horizon Jan 31, 2013
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 It’s Not the Economy2012Feb 4, 2013
 EPS Reality2012Feb 4, 2013
 Market Volatility  
 Significant Swings2012Jan 7, 2013
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2012Jan 7, 2013
 A Minsky Review  
 Calm Before the Storm  
 Stock Market Returns & Volatility2012Jan 7, 2013
 Investment Implications  
NEW!Game Changer April 5, 2013
 Looming Crisis  
 Row, Not Sail  
 The Impact of Losses  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Up & Down Capture Graph2012Jan 21, 2013
 Up & Down Capture2012Jan 21, 2013
 Destitute At 80: Retiring In Secular Cycles  
 Impact of Rebalancing  
 Rowing vs. the Rollercoaster  

Interest Rates

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 Interest Rate History  
 Interest Rates & Inflation2012Jan 21, 2013
 The 6/50 Rule2012Jan 21, 2013
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2012Jan 21, 2013
 The Yield Curve, The Fed, & P/Es2012Jan 21, 2013
 Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2012Jan 21, 2013
 Dynamic History2012Jan 21, 2013
 Investment Implications  
 Climb the Ladder2012Jan 21, 2013
 Surfing The Roll  
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

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Update
 Economic Growth  
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2012Feb 4, 2013
 GDP & Population Growth2012Feb 4, 2013
 GDP & Economic Productivity2012Feb 4, 2013
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2012Feb 4, 2013
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2012Feb 4, 2013

Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

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