Recent Additions

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at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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Last
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 Featured Items  
RECENTExit from Wonderland  
RECENTAre We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
UPDATE 1The P/E ReportDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
RECENTAre We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
UPDATE 3Stock Market Matrix2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 1Secular Cycles Explained2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 2Secular Cycles2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2Secular Cycle Dashboard2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 1This Secular Bear…So FarDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
 Secular Bear Example July 5, 2012
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
UPDATE 1Components of Return2015Jan 6, 2016
 Waiting for Average Oct 4, 2013
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
UPDATE 1Generation Returns2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1Distorted Averages2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1Gazing at the Future2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1Stock Market Yo-Yo2015Jan 6, 2016
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
UPDATE 3Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3Financial Physics2015Feb 8, 2016
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATE 1Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1The P/E ReportDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 2P/E: Forward Operating Averages 122015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 3Nightmare on Wall Street2015Feb 8, 2016
 The Truth About P/Es  
UPDATE 2P/E Ratios & Inflation2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 1P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2015Jan 6, 2016
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATE 3Earnings Trends: History & FutureFeb 5, 2016Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3EPS Reality2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3It’s Not the Economy2015Feb 8, 2016
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATE 1Stock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1Significant Swings2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
UPDATE 1Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2015Jan 6, 2016
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
RECENTExit from Wonderland  
UPDATE 1Half & Half: Why Rowing Works2015Jan 6, 2016
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer April 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
UPDATE 2Up & Down Capture Graph2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2Up & Down Capture2015Jan 25, 2016
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

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 Interest Rate History  
UPDATE 2Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2The 6/50 Rule2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2The 10-Year Treasury Note2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2Interest Rates & Inflation2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 3Dynamic History2015Feb 8, 2016
 Investment Implications  
UPDATE 2Ladder in a Bear2015Jan 25, 2016
UPDATE 2Climb the Ladder2015Jan 25, 2016
 Surfing the Roll  
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

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 Economic Growth  
UPDATE 3Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3GDP – Real Economic Growth2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3GDP & Economic Productivity2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3GDP & Population Growth2015Feb 8, 2016
 General Economy  
UPDATE 3GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE 3GDP – Nominal & EPS2015Feb 8, 2016

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Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

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