Recent Additions

Suggestions Welcome

at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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Last
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 Featured Items  
NEW!Stock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleMar 2014 
 Half & Half: Why Rowing Works  
UPDATED!The P/E ReportMar 2014Apr 7, 2014
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Secular Cycle Dashboard2013Jan 20, 2014
UPDATED!This Secular Bear…So FarMar 2014Apr 7, 2014
 Deja Vu  
 Secular Bear Example July 5, 2012
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Secular Cycles2013Jan 20, 2014
 Secular Cycles Explained2013Jan 6, 2014
 Stock Market Matrix2013Feb 6, 2014
 Long-Term Returns  
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Stock Market Yo-Yo2013Jan 6, 2014
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Generation Returns2013Jan 6, 2014
 Distorted Averages2013Jan 6, 2014
 Components of Return2013Jan 6, 2014
 Gazing at the Future2013Jan 6, 2014
 Waiting for Average Oct 4, 2013
 Financial Physics  
 Dissecting Returns  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2013Feb 6, 2014
 Financial Physics2013Feb 6, 2014
 P/E Ratio  
 Nightmare on Wall Street Feb 6, 2014
 Secular Stock Market P/E2013Jan 6, 2014
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2013Jan 6, 2014
 P/E Ratios & Inflation2013Jan 20, 2014
 The Truth About P/Es  
UPDATED!The P/E ReportMar 2014Apr 7, 2014
 Earnings & Economy  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Converging on the Horizon Feb 6, 2014
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 EPS Reality2013Feb 6, 2014
 It’s Not the Economy2013Feb 6, 2014
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Market Volatility  
NEW!Stock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleMar 2014 
 Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2013Jan 6, 2014
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2013Jan 6, 2014
 Significant Swings2013Jan 6, 2014
 Investment Implications  
 Half & Half: Why Rowing Works  
 Game Changer April 5, 2013
 Looming Crisis  
 Row, Not Sail  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Impact of Rebalancing  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Up & Down Capture2013Jan 20, 2014
 Up & Down Capture Graph2013Jan 20, 2014
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 The Impact of Losses  

Interest Rates

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Last
Update
 Interest Rate History  
 Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2013Jan 20, 2014
 The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2013Jan 20, 2014
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2013Jan 20, 2014
 The 6/50 Rule2013Jan 20, 2014
 Interest Rates & Inflation2013Jan 20, 2014
 Dynamic History2013Feb 6, 2014
 Investment Implications  
 Ladder in a Bear2013Jan 20, 2014
 Surfing the Roll  
 Climb the Ladder2013Jan 20, 2014
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

  Updated
Through
Last
Update
 Economic Growth  
RECENTWorst Recovery Since…Ever?  
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2013Feb 6, 2014
 GDP & Economic Productivity2013Feb 6, 2014
 GDP & Population Growth2013Feb 6, 2014
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2013Feb 6, 2014
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2013Feb 6, 2014

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Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

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