Recent Additions

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at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

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 Featured Items  
NEWExit from Wonderland  
NEWAre We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureJun 2015Jul 6, 2015
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportJun 2015Jul 6, 2015
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
NEWAre We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
 Stock Market Matrix2014Feb 4, 2015
 Secular Cycles Explained2014Jan 6, 2015
 Secular Cycles2014Jan 20, 2015
 Secular Cycle Dashboard2014Jan 20, 2015
UPDATEDThis Secular Bear…So FarJun 2015Jul 6, 2015
 Secular Bear Example July 5, 2012
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Components of Return2014Jan 6, 2015
 Waiting for Average Oct 4, 2013
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Generation Returns2014Jan 6, 2015
 Distorted Averages2014Jan 6, 2015
 Gazing at the Future2014Jan 6, 2015
 Stock Market Yo-Yo2014Jan 6, 2015
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2014Feb 4, 2015
 Financial Physics2014Feb 4, 2015
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
 Secular Stock Market P/E2014Jan 6, 2015
UPDATEDThe P/E ReportJun 2015Jul 6, 2015
RECENTP/E: Forward Operating Averages 12  
 Nightmare on Wall Street Feb 4, 2015
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E Ratios & Inflation2014Jan 20, 2015
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2014Jan 6, 2015
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureJun 2015Jul 6, 2015
 Converging on the Horizon2014Feb 4, 2015
 EPS Reality2014Feb 4, 2015
 It’s Not the Economy2014Feb 4, 2015
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleJun 2015Jul 6, 2015
 Significant Swings2014Jan 6, 2015
 Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2014Jan 6, 2015
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
NEWExit from Wonderland  
 Half & Half: Why Rowing Works2014Jan 6, 2015
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer April 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
 Up & Down Capture Graph2014Jan 20, 2015
 Up & Down Capture2014Jan 20, 2015
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

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 Interest Rate History  
 Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2014Jan 20, 2015
 The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2014Jan 20, 2015
 The 6/50 Rule2014Jan 20, 2015
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2014Jan 20, 2015
 Interest Rates & Inflation2014Jan 20, 2015
 Dynamic History2014Feb 4, 2015
 Investment Implications  
 Ladder in a Bear2014Jan 20, 2015
 Climb the Ladder2014Jan 20, 2015
 Surfing the Roll  
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

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Last
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 Economic Growth  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?Jan 2015Feb 4, 2015
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2014Apr 7, 2015
 GDP & Economic Productivity2014Feb 4, 2015
 GDP & Population Growth2014Apr 7, 2015
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2014Feb 4, 2015
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2014Feb 4, 2015

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Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

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