Through 2016

Nightmare on Wall Street

There is compelling evidence that the current secular bear market is still early in its course. This bear will likely have another decade or longer to run, unless over the next few years there is a dramatic change in the inflation rate that decreases P/E substantially. The preceding secular bull ended with the market valuation (P/E) at levels twice as high as all previous secular bulls. That meant that this secular bear had twice as much ground to cover. The last fourteen years have deflated the bubble, but the market still remains at levels consistent with secular bear starts.