As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Suggestions Welcome

at Info[at]


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
Inflation: Not Done Yet?Oct 9, 2023
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status
Stock Market MatrixDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
Secular Cycles ExplainedDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Secular CyclesDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Secular Cycle DashboardDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
This Secular Bear…So FarDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Secular Bear Example
Living Through the Last Secular Bear
Deja Vu
 Long-Term Returns  
Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?
Components of ReturnDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
Waiting for AverageApr 5, 2016
Groundhog Decade for Stocks
Generation ReturnsDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
Distorted AveragesDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
Gazing at the FutureDec 2023Jan 9, 2023
Stock Market Yo-YoDec 2023Jan 9, 2023
Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)
Shiller Shortfall
 Financial Physics  
Crestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
Financial PhysicsDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
Dissecting Returns
 P/E Ratio  
Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATEDThe P/E Summary (Quarterly)Jun 2024Jul 15, 2024
The P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2023Jan 22, 2024
The Truth About P/Es
P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2023Feb 15, 2024
Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
P/E Ratios & InflationDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
P/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
Natural Pinnacle to P/Es
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureJun 2024Jul 15, 2024
Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
EPS RealityDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
It’s Not the EconomyDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011
Back to the HorizonDec 2008
Beyond the Horizon
Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleJun 2024Jul 15, 2024
Significant SwingsDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
Calm Before the Storm
A Minsky Review
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up
Exit from Wonderland
Half & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2023Jan 9, 2024
The Impact of Losses
Game ChangerApr 5, 2013
Row, Not Sail
Portfolio Mismanagement
Markowitz Misunderstood
Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles
Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster
Looming Crisis
Up & Down Capture GraphDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
Up & Down CaptureDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
Impact of Rebalancing

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
UPDATEDBond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsJun 2024Jul 15, 2024
The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
The 6/50 RuleDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
The 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
Interest Rates & InflationDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
Ladder in a Bear2023Jan 22, 2024
Climb the LadderDec 2023Jan 22, 2024
Surfing the Roll
Grossly Misunderstood Debt


 Economic Growth  
Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon
Economic Cycle Dashboard
Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
GDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
GDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
GDP & Population GrowthDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
 General Economy  
Inflation: Not Done Yet?Oct 9, 2023
GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2023Feb 15, 2024
GDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2023Feb 15, 2024