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As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

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Stock Market

 Featured Items  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
 Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
UPDATE IIIStock Market Matrix Feb 4, 2021
UPDATE ISecular Cycles ExplainedDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE IISecular CyclesDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IISecular Cycle Dashboard2019Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IThis Secular Bear…So FarDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Secular Bear Example  
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?  
UPDATE IComponents of ReturnDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Waiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
UPDATE IGeneration ReturnsDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE IDistorted AveragesDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE IGazing at the FutureDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE IStock Market Yo-YoDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
UPDATE IIICrestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
UPDATE IIIFinancial PhysicsDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATE ISecular Stock Market P/EDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 The P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 30, 2020Oct 6, 2020
UPDATE IThe P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 The Truth About P/Es  
UPDATE IIIP/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
UPDATE IIP/E Ratios & InflationDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IP/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATE IIIEarnings Trends: History & FutureJan 2021Feb 4, 2021
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE IIIEPS RealityDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
UPDATE IIIIt’s Not the EconomyDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATE IStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE ISignificant SwingsDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE IStock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATE IVolatility in PerspectiveDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Exit from Wonderland  
UPDATE IHalf & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
UPDATE IIUp & Down Capture GraphDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IIUp & Down CaptureDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
UPDATE IIBond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IIThe Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IIThe 6/50 RuleDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IIThe 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IIInterest Rates & InflationDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
UPDATE IILadder in a Bear2019Jan 18, 2021
UPDATE IIClimb the LadderDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Surfing the Roll  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  


 Economic Growth  
 Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon  
 Economic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
UPDATE IIIGDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
UPDATE IIIGDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
UPDATE IIIGDP & Population GrowthDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 General Economy  
UPDATE IIIGDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
UPDATE IIIGDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2020Feb 4, 2021

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