As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.
Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.
Suggestions Welcome
at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com
Note
The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.
Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.
Stock Market
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Through | Last
Update |
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| | Featured Items | | |
| Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts | | |
| PONDERABLE | The Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E | | |
| | Secular Stock Market Cycles | | |
| Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts | | |
| Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles | | |
| Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status | | |
| UPDATE III | Stock Market Matrix | Dec 2022 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Secular Cycles Explained | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | Secular Cycles | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | Secular Cycle Dashboard | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2022 |
| UPDATE I | This Secular Bear…So Far | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Secular Bear Example | | |
| Living Through the Last Secular Bear | | |
| Deja Vu | | |
| | Long-Term Returns | | |
| Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend? | | |
| UPDATE I | Components of Return | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Waiting for Average | | Apr 5, 2016 |
| Groundhog Decade for Stocks | | |
| UPDATE I | Generation Returns | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Distorted Averages | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Gazing at the Future | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Stock Market Yo-Yo | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?) | | |
| Shiller Shortfall | | |
| | Financial Physics | | |
| UPDATE III | Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together | Dec 2022 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| UPDATE III | Financial Physics | Dec 2022 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| Dissecting Returns | | |
| | P/E Ratio | | |
| UPDATE I | Secular Stock Market P/E | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| The P/E Summary (Quarterly) | Sep 2022 | Oct 11, 2022 |
| UPDATE II | The P/E Report (Annual) | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| The Truth About P/Es | | |
| UPDATE III | P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12 | Dec 2022 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| Nightmare on Wall Street | 2016 | Feb 5, 2017 |
| UPDATE II | P/E Ratios & Inflation | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Natural Pinnacle to P/Es | | |
| | Earnings & Economy | | |
| UPDATE III | Earnings Trends: History & Future | Feb 9, 2023 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| Converging on the Horizon | 2015 | Feb 8, 2016 |
| UPDATE III | EPS Reality | Dec 2022 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| UPDATE III | It’s Not the Economy | Dec 2022 | Feb 13, 2023 |
| Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011 | | |
| Back to the Horizon | | Dec 2008 |
| Beyond the Horizon | | |
| Siegel’s Shortfall | Dec 2020 | Apr 6, 2020 |
| | Market Volatility | | |
| UPDATE I | Stock Market Volatility: An Erratic Cycle | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Significant Swings | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Stock Market Returns & Volatility | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UPDATE I | Volatility in Perspective | Dec 2022 | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Calm Before the Storm | | |
| A Minsky Review | | |
| | Investment Implications | | |
| PONDERABLE | The Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E | | |
| Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade | | |
| FAVORITE | Reconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up | | |
| Exit from Wonderland | | |
| UPDATE I (corrected) | Half & Half: Why Rowing Works | Dec 2022 | Jan 11, 2023 |
| The Impact of Losses | | |
| Game Changer | | Apr 5, 2013 |
| Row, Not Sail | | |
| Portfolio Mismanagement | | |
| Markowitz Misunderstood | | |
| Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles | | |
| Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster | | |
| Looming Crisis | | |
| UPDATE II | Up & Down Capture Graph | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | Up & Down Capture | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Impact of Rebalancing | | |
Interest Rates
| | | Updated
Through | Last
Update |
|---|
| | Interest Rate History | | |
| UPDATE II | Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | The 6/50 Rule | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | The 10-Year Treasury Note | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | Interest Rates & Inflation | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Dynamic History | 2017 | Feb 3, 2017 |
| | Investment Implications | | |
| UPDATE II | Ladder in a Bear | 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| UPDATE II | Climb the Ladder | Dec 2022 | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Surfing the Roll | | |
| | Other | | |
| Grossly Misunderstood Debt | | |
