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Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

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The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status
Stock Market MatrixDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
Secular Cycles ExplainedDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Secular CyclesDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Secular Cycle DashboardDec 2021Jan 21, 2021
This Secular Bear…So FarDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Secular Bear Example
Living Through the Last Secular Bear
Deja Vu
 Long-Term Returns  
Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?
Components of ReturnDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Waiting for AverageApr 5, 2016
Groundhog Decade for Stocks
Generation ReturnsDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Distorted AveragesDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Gazing at the FutureDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Stock Market Yo-YoDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)
Shiller Shortfall
 Financial Physics  
Crestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
Financial PhysicsDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
Dissecting Returns
 P/E Ratio  
Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATEDThe P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2022Oct 11, 2022
The P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2021Jan 10, 2022
The Truth About P/Es
P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2021Feb 7, 2022
Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
P/E Ratios & InflationDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
P/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Natural Pinnacle to P/Es
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureSep 2022Oct 11, 2022
Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
EPS RealityDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
It’s Not the EconomyDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011
Back to the HorizonDec 2008
Beyond the Horizon
Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleSep 2022Oct 11, 2022
Significant SwingsDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Calm Before the Storm
A Minsky Review
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up
Exit from Wonderland
Half & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
The Impact of Losses
Game ChangerApr 5, 2013
Row, Not Sail
Portfolio Mismanagement
Markowitz Misunderstood
Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles
Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster
Looming Crisis
Up & Down Capture GraphDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Up & Down CaptureDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Impact of Rebalancing

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
Bond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
The 6/50 RuleJun 2022Jul 11, 2022
The 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Interest Rates & InflationDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
Ladder in a Bear2021Jan 21, 2022
Climb the LadderDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Surfing the Roll
Grossly Misunderstood Debt


 Economic Growth  
Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon
Economic Cycle Dashboard
Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
GDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
GDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
GDP & Population GrowthDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
 General Economy  
GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2021Feb 7, 2022
GDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2021Feb 7, 2022