Recent Additions

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As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
NEWSerious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
 Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2017Jan 6, 2018
RECENTReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
 Stock Market Matrix2017Feb 3, 2018
 Secular Cycles Explained2017Jan 6, 2018
 Secular Cycles2017Jan 17, 2018
 Secular Cycle Dashboard2017Jan 17, 2018
UPDATEDThis Secular Bear…So FarMar 2018Apr 6, 2018
 Secular Bear Example  
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?  
 Components of Return2017Jan 6, 2018
 Waiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Generation Returns2017Jan 6, 2018
 Distorted Averages2017Jan 6, 2018
 Gazing at the Future2017Jan 6, 2017
 Stock Market Yo-Yo2017Jan 6, 2018
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2017Feb 3, 2018
 Financial Physics2017Feb 3, 2018
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
 Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2017Jan 6, 2018
NEWThe P/E Summary (Quarterly)  
 The P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2017Jan 6, 2018
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E: Forward Operating Averages 122017Jan 17, 2018
 Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
 P/E Ratios & Inflation2017Jan 17, 2018
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2017Jan 6, 2018
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureMar 2018Apr 6, 2018
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
 EPS Reality2017Feb 3, 2018
 It’s Not the Economy2017Feb 3, 2018
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleMar 2018Apr 6, 2018
 Significant Swings2017Jan 6, 2018
 Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2017Jan 6, 2018
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2017Jan 6, 2018
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
NEWSerious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
RECENTReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Exit from Wonderland  
 Half & Half: Why Rowing Works2017Jan 6, 2018
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
 Up & Down Capture Graph2017Jan 17, 2018
 Up & Down Capture2017Jan 17, 2018
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
 Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2017Jan 17, 2018
 The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2017Jan 17, 2018
 The 6/50 Rule2017Jan 17, 2018
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2017Jan 17, 2018
 Interest Rates & Inflation2017Jan 17, 2018
 Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2018
 Investment Implications  
 Ladder in a Bear2017Jan 17, 2018
 Climb the Ladder2017Jan 17, 2018
 Surfing the Roll  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  


 Economic Growth  
 Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon  
 Economic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP & Economic Productivity2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP & Population Growth2017Feb 3, 2018
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2017Feb 3, 2018

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Hedge Funds

This field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued. The following items will remain here pending relocation or removal.

article: Burying the Survivorship Myth

Burying the Myth of Survivorship Bias 

This article presents the results of a research effort to assess the impact of survivorship bias within hedge fund indexes. Survivorship bias represents the tendency for indexes to be overstated due to the exclusion of poor performing funds. Since hedge fund indexes include funds that report voluntarily, there are a number of factors that affect survivorship bias. The results of two studies indicate that more funds stopped reporting after periods of positive results (closing to new investors) than due to negative performance (failure).

analysis: Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts

Hedge Funds: Myths & Facts 

Never has an industry so extensively studied by “experts” produced such a surplus of myths and misunderstandings. Many of these myths could easily be clarified with a call or two to knowledge-able industry professionals or participants. Too often, a seemingly logical statement that sounds-good-when-you-say-it-fast becomes accepted conventional wisdom despite the reams of evidence weighted against it. Although many of these experts are well-intentioned, they may not be sufficiently well-informed. The solution lies in further and enhanced collaboration between academia, industry, and the press.

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Books by Ed Easterling

Click Here for Details Unexpected Returns - book by Ed Easterling



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