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As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

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Stock Market

 Featured Items  
UPDATE IGazing at the Future2018Jan 7, 2019
RECENTSerious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
RECENTThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
 Stock Market Matrix2017Feb 3, 2018
UPDATE ISecular Cycles Explained2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE IISecular Cycles2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IISecular Cycle Dashboard2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IThis Secular Bear…So FarDec 2018Jan 7, 2019
 Secular Bear Example  
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?  
UPDATE IComponents of Return2018Jan 7, 2019
 Waiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
UPDATE IGeneration Returns2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE IDistorted Averages2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE IGazing at the Future2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE IStock Market Yo-Yo2018Jan 7, 2019
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2017Feb 3, 2018
 Financial Physics2017Feb 3, 2018
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATE ISecular Stock Market P/EDec 2018Jan 7, 2019
 The P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2018Oct 9, 2018
UPDATE IThe P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2018Jan 7, 2019
 The Truth About P/Es  
UPDATE IIP/E: Forward Operating Averages 122018Jan 18, 2019
 Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
UPDATE IIP/E Ratios & Inflation2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IP/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2018Jan 7, 2019
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATE IIEarnings Trends: History & FutureJan 2018Jan 18, 2019
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
 EPS Reality2017Feb 3, 2018
 It’s Not the Economy2017Feb 3, 2018
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATE IStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE ISignificant Swings2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE IStock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2018Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE IVolatility in PerspectiveDec 2018Jan 7, 2019
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
RECENTThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
RECENTSerious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Exit from Wonderland  
UPDATE IHalf & Half: Why Rowing Works2018Jan 7, 2019
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
UPDATE IIUp & Down Capture Graph2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IIUp & Down Capture2018Jan 18, 2019
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
UPDATE IIBond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IIThe Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IIThe 6/50 Rule2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IIThe 10-Year Treasury Note2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IIInterest Rates & Inflation2018Jan 18, 2019
 Dynamic History2018Feb 3, 2018
 Investment Implications  
UPDATE IILadder in a Bear2018Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE IIClimb the Ladder2018Jan 18, 2019
 Surfing the Roll  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  


 Economic Growth  
 Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon  
 Economic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP & Economic Productivity2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP & Population Growth2017Feb 3, 2018
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2017Feb 3, 2018
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2017Feb 3, 2018

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Books by Ed Easterling

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