As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

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The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
UPDATEDInflation: Not Done Yet?Oct 9, 2023
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status
Stock Market MatrixDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Secular Cycles ExplainedDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Secular CyclesDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Secular Cycle DashboardDec 2022Jan 19, 2022
This Secular Bear…So FarDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Secular Bear Example
Living Through the Last Secular Bear
Deja Vu
 Long-Term Returns  
Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?
Components of ReturnDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Waiting for AverageApr 5, 2016
Groundhog Decade for Stocks
Generation ReturnsDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Distorted AveragesDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Gazing at the FutureDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Stock Market Yo-YoDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)
Shiller Shortfall
 Financial Physics  
Crestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Financial PhysicsDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Dissecting Returns
 P/E Ratio  
Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATEDThe P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2023Oct 9, 2023
The P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2022Jan 19, 2023
The Truth About P/Es
P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
P/E Ratios & InflationDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
P/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Natural Pinnacle to P/Es
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureSep 2023Oct 9, 2023
Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
EPS RealityDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
It’s Not the EconomyDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011
Back to the HorizonDec 2008
Beyond the Horizon
Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleSep 2023Oct 9, 2023
Significant SwingsDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Calm Before the Storm
A Minsky Review
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up
Exit from Wonderland
Half & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2022Jan 11, 2023
The Impact of Losses
Game ChangerApr 5, 2013
Row, Not Sail
Portfolio Mismanagement
Markowitz Misunderstood
Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles
Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster
Looming Crisis
Up & Down Capture GraphDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Up & Down CaptureDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Impact of Rebalancing

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
Bond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
The 6/50 RuleDec 2022Apr 10, 2023
The 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Interest Rates & InflationDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
Ladder in a Bear2022Jan 19, 2023
Climb the LadderDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Surfing the Roll
Grossly Misunderstood Debt


 Economic Growth  
Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon
Economic Cycle Dashboard
Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
GDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
GDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
GDP & Population GrowthDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
 General Economy  
UPDATEDInflation: Not Done Yet?Oct 9, 2023
GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
GDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2022Feb 13, 2023