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As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
 Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
 Stock Market Matrix2019Feb 4, 2020
 Secular Cycles Explained2019Jan 6, 2020
 Secular Cycles2019Jan 17, 2020
 Secular Cycle Dashboard2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATEDThis Secular Bear…So FarSep 30, 2020Oct 6, 2020
 Secular Bear Example  
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?  
 Components of Return2019Jan 6, 2020
 Waiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Generation Returns2019Jan 6, 2020
 Distorted Averages2019Jan 6, 2020
 Gazing at the FutureDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 Stock Market Yo-Yo2019Jan 6, 2020
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2019Feb 4, 2020
 Financial Physics2019Feb 4, 2020
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
 Secular Stock Market P/EJun 30, 2020July 7, 2020
UPDATEDThe P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 30, 2020Oct 6, 2020
 The P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E: Forward Operating Averages 122019Feb 4, 2020
 Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
 P/E Ratios & Inflation2019Jan 17, 2020
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2019Jan 6, 2020
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureSep 30, 2020Oct 6, 2020
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
 EPS Reality2019Feb 4, 2020
 It’s Not the Economy2019Feb 4, 2020
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall2019Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleSep 30, 2020Oct 6, 2020
 Significant Swings2019Jan 6, 2020
 Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Exit from Wonderland  
 Half & Half: Why Rowing Works2019Jan 6, 2020
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
 Up & Down Capture Graph2019Jan 17, 2020
 Up & Down Capture2019Jan 17, 2020
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
 Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2019Jan 17, 2020
 The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2019Jan 17, 2020
 The 6/50 Rule2019Jan 17, 2020
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2018 
 Interest Rates & Inflation2019Jan 17, 2020
 Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
 Ladder in a Bear2019Jan 17, 2020
 Climb the Ladder2019Jan 17, 2020
 Surfing the Roll  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  


 Economic Growth  
 Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon  
 Economic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2019Feb 4, 2020
 GDP & Economic Productivity2019Feb 4, 2020
 GDP & Population Growth2019Feb 4, 2020
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2019Feb 4, 2020
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2019Feb 4, 2020

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Books by Ed Easterling

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