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As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
 Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
Stock Market Matrix Feb 4, 2021
 Secular Cycles ExplainedDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Secular CyclesDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Secular Cycle DashboardJun 2021Jul 7, 2021
 This Secular Bear…So FarApr 2021Apr 7, 2021
 Secular Bear Example  
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?  
 Components of ReturnDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Waiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
 Generation ReturnsDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Distorted AveragesDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Gazing at the FutureDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Stock Market Yo-YoDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Financial PhysicsDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
 Secular Stock Market P/EDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
UPDATEDThe P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2021Oct 7, 2021
 The P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
 P/E Ratios & InflationDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 P/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureSep 2021Oct 7, 2021
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
 EPS RealityDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 It’s Not the EconomyDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATEDStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleSep 2021Oct 7, 2021
 Significant SwingsDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Stock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Volatility in PerspectiveDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Exit from Wonderland  
 Half & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2020Jan 7, 2021
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
 Up & Down Capture GraphDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Up & Down CaptureDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
 Bond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 The 6/50 RuleDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 The 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Interest Rates & InflationDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
 Ladder in a Bear2019Jan 18, 2021
 Climb the LadderDec 2020Jan 18, 2021
 Surfing the Roll  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  


 Economic Growth  
 Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon  
 Economic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
 GDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 GDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 GDP & Population GrowthDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 GDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2020Feb 4, 2021

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Books by Ed Easterling

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