Recent Additions

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at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

  Updated
Through		Last
Update
 Featured Items  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
UPDATE IGazing at the Future2019Jan 6, 2020
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts  
 Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles  
 Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status  
 Stock Market Matrix2018Mar 4, 2019
UPDATE ISecular Cycles Explained2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE IISecular Cycles2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IISecular Cycle Dashboard2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IThis Secular Bear…So FarDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 Secular Bear Example  
 Living Through the Last Secular Bear  
 Deja Vu  
 Long-Term Returns  
 Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?  
UPDATE IComponents of Return2019Jan 6, 2020
 Waiting for Average Apr 5, 2016
 Groundhog Decade for Stocks  
UPDATE IGeneration Returns2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE IDistorted Averages2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE IGazing at the Future2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE IStock Market Yo-Yo2019Jan 6, 2020
 Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)  
 Shiller Shortfall  
 Financial Physics  
 Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together2018Mar 4, 2019
 Financial Physics2018Mar 4, 2019
 Dissecting Returns  
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATE ISecular Stock Market P/EDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 The P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2019Oct 8, 2019
UPDATE IThe P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 The Truth About P/Es  
 P/E: Forward Operating Averages 122018Jan 18, 2019
 Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
UPDATE IIP/E Ratios & Inflation2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IP/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield2019Jan 6, 2020
 Natural Pinnacle to P/Es  
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATEDEarnings Trends: History & FutureJan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2020
 Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
 EPS Reality2018Mar 4, 2019
 It’s Not the Economy2018Mar 4, 2019
 Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011  
 Back to the Horizon Dec 2008
 Beyond the Horizon  
 Siegel’s Shortfall  
 Market Volatility  
UPDATE IStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE ISignificant Swings2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE IStock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
UPDATE IVolatility in PerspectiveDec 2019Jan 6, 2020
 Calm Before the Storm  
 A Minsky Review  
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E  
 Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade  
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up  
 Exit from Wonderland  
UPDATE IHalf & Half: Why Rowing Works2019Jan 6, 2020
 The Impact of Losses  
 Game Changer Apr 5, 2013
 Row, Not Sail  
 Portfolio Mismanagement  
 Markowitz Misunderstood  
 Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles  
 Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster  
 Looming Crisis  
UPDATE IIUp & Down Capture Graph2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IIUp & Down Capture2019Jan 17, 2020
 Impact of Rebalancing  

Interest Rates

  Updated
Through		Last
Update
 Interest Rate History  
UPDATE IIBond Yields: Reasonable Expectations2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IIThe Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IIThe 6/50 Rule2019Jan 17, 2020
 The 10-Year Treasury Note2018 
UPDATE IIInterest Rates & Inflation2019Jan 17, 2020
 Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
UPDATE IILadder in a Bear2019Jan 17, 2020
UPDATE IIClimb the Ladder2019Jan 17, 2020
 Surfing the Roll  
 Other  
 Grossly Misunderstood Debt  

Economy

  Updated
Through		Last
Update
 Economic Growth  
 Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon  
 Economic Cycle Dashboard  
 Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2018Mar 4, 2019
 GDP – Real Economic Growth2018Mar 4, 2019
 GDP & Economic Productivity2018Mar 4, 2019
 GDP & Population Growth2018Mar 4, 2019
 General Economy  
 GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components2018Mar 4, 2019
 GDP – Nominal & EPS2018Mar 4, 2019

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