As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at], or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Suggestions Welcome

at Info[at]


The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

 Featured Items  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status
Stock Market MatrixFeb 4, 2021
UPDATED ISecular Cycles ExplainedDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED IISecular CyclesDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IISecular Cycle DashboardDec 2021Jan 21, 2021
UPDATED IThis Secular Bear…So FarDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Secular Bear Example
Living Through the Last Secular Bear
Deja Vu
 Long-Term Returns  
Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?
UPDATED IComponents of ReturnDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Waiting for AverageApr 5, 2016
Groundhog Decade for Stocks
UPDATED IGeneration ReturnsDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED IDistorted AveragesDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED IGazing at the FutureDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED IStock Market Yo-YoDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)
Shiller Shortfall
 Financial Physics  
Crestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
Financial PhysicsDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
Dissecting Returns
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATED ISecular Stock Market P/EDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
The P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2021Oct 7, 2021
UPDATED IThe P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2021Jan 10, 2022
The Truth About P/Es
P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2020Feb 4, 2021
Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
UPDATED IIP/E Ratios & InflationDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IP/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Natural Pinnacle to P/Es
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATED IEarnings Trends: History & FutureDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
EPS RealityDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
It’s Not the EconomyDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011
Back to the HorizonDec 2008
Beyond the Horizon
Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATED IStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED ISignificant SwingsDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED IStock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
UPDATED IVolatility in PerspectiveDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
Calm Before the Storm
A Minsky Review
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up
Exit from Wonderland
UPDATED IHalf & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2021Jan 10, 2022
The Impact of Losses
Game ChangerApr 5, 2013
Row, Not Sail
Portfolio Mismanagement
Markowitz Misunderstood
Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles
Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster
Looming Crisis
UPDATED IIUp & Down Capture GraphDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IIUp & Down CaptureDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Impact of Rebalancing

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
UPDATED IIBond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IIThe Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IIThe 6/50 RuleDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IIThe 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IIInterest Rates & InflationDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
UPDATED IILadder in a Bear2021Jan 21, 2022
UPDATED IIClimb the LadderDec 2021Jan 21, 2022
Surfing the Roll
Grossly Misunderstood Debt


 Economic Growth  
Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon
Economic Cycle Dashboard
Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
GDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
GDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
GDP & Population GrowthDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
 General Economy  
GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2020Feb 4, 2021
GDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2020Feb 4, 2021