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Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

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The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

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Stock Market

 Featured Items  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
 Secular Stock Market Cycles  
Outlook: How Crestmont Research Forecasts
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status
UPDATE IIIStock Market MatrixDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
UPDATE ISecular Cycles ExplainedDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE IISecular CyclesDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IISecular Cycle DashboardDec 2022Jan 19, 2022
UPDATE IThis Secular Bear…So FarDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Secular Bear Example
Living Through the Last Secular Bear
Deja Vu
 Long-Term Returns  
Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?
UPDATE IComponents of ReturnDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Waiting for AverageApr 5, 2016
Groundhog Decade for Stocks
UPDATE IGeneration ReturnsDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE IDistorted AveragesDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE IGazing at the FutureDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE IStock Market Yo-YoDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)
Shiller Shortfall
 Financial Physics  
UPDATE IIICrestmont’s Research: Putting It TogetherDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
UPDATE IIIFinancial PhysicsDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Dissecting Returns
 P/E Ratio  
UPDATE ISecular Stock Market P/EDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
The P/E Summary (Quarterly)Sep 2022Oct 11, 2022
UPDATE IIThe P/E Report (Annual)Dec 2022Jan 19, 2023
The Truth About P/Es
UPDATE IIIP/E: Forward Operating Averages 12Dec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Nightmare on Wall Street2016Feb 5, 2017
UPDATE IIP/E Ratios & InflationDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IP/E Ratio vs. Dividend YieldDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Natural Pinnacle to P/Es
 Earnings & Economy  
UPDATE IIIEarnings Trends: History & FutureFeb 9, 2023Feb 13, 2023
Converging on the Horizon2015Feb 8, 2016
UPDATE IIIEPS RealityDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
UPDATE IIIIt’s Not the EconomyDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011
Back to the HorizonDec 2008
Beyond the Horizon
Siegel’s ShortfallDec 2020Apr 6, 2020
 Market Volatility  
UPDATE IStock Market Volatility: An Erratic CycleDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE ISignificant SwingsDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE IStock Market Returns & VolatilityDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
UPDATE IVolatility in PerspectiveDec 2022Jan 10, 2023
Calm Before the Storm
A Minsky Review
 Investment Implications  
PONDERABLEThe Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
FAVORITEReconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up
Exit from Wonderland
UPDATE I (corrected)Half & Half: Why Rowing WorksDec 2022Jan 11, 2023
The Impact of Losses
Game ChangerApr 5, 2013
Row, Not Sail
Portfolio Mismanagement
Markowitz Misunderstood
Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles
Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster
Looming Crisis
UPDATE IIUp & Down Capture GraphDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IIUp & Down CaptureDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Impact of Rebalancing

Interest Rates

 Interest Rate History  
UPDATE IIBond Yields: Reasonable ExpectationsDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IIThe Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/EsDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IIThe 6/50 RuleDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IIThe 10-Year Treasury NoteDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IIInterest Rates & InflationDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Dynamic History2017Feb 3, 2017
 Investment Implications  
UPDATE IILadder in a Bear2022Jan 19, 2023
UPDATE IIClimb the LadderDec 2022Jan 19, 2023
Surfing the Roll
Grossly Misunderstood Debt


 Economic Growth  
Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon
Economic Cycle Dashboard
Worst Recovery Since…Ever?2019Feb 4, 2020
UPDATE IIIGDP – Real Economic GrowthDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
UPDATE IIIGDP & Economic ProductivityDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
UPDATE IIIGDP & Population GrowthDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
 General Economy  
UPDATE IIIGDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling ComponentsDec 2022Feb 13, 2023
UPDATE IIIGDP – Nominal & EPSDec 2022Feb 13, 2023