Recent Additions: Crestmont Research

Suggestions Welcome

at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this Contact Form.

As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are welcomed at: Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or via the Contact Form.

Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the first quarter.

Note

The Crestmont Research website has undergone a series of upgrades. Financial Physics has been incorporated into the Stock Market tab as a separate section. In addition, the hedge fund field is no longer a core area of research and has been discontinued.

Please let us know if you find a broken or misdirected link, typos, issues with the site, or suggestions for enhancements.

Stock Market

		Updated Through	Last Update
	Featured Items
UPDATE I	Gazing at the Future	2018	Jan 7, 2019
RECENT	Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
RECENT	The Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
	Secular Stock Market Cycles
	Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
	Are We There Yet? Secular Stock Market Cycle Status
	Stock Market Matrix	2017	Feb 3, 2018
UPDATE I	Secular Cycles Explained	2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE II	Secular Cycles	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	Secular Cycle Dashboard	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE I	This Secular Bear…So Far	Dec 2018	Jan 7, 2019
	Secular Bear Example
	Living Through the Last Secular Bear
	Deja Vu
	Long-Term Returns
	Where Did It Come From: Is the Trend Your Friend?
UPDATE I	Components of Return	2018	Jan 7, 2019
	Waiting for Average		Apr 5, 2016
	Groundhog Decade for Stocks
UPDATE I	Generation Returns	2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE I	Distorted Averages	2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE I	Gazing at the Future	2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE I	Stock Market Yo-Yo	2018	Jan 7, 2019
	Must Be Present to Win (Or Lose?)
	Shiller Shortfall
	Financial Physics
	Crestmont’s Research: Putting It Together	2017	Feb 3, 2018
	Financial Physics	2017	Feb 3, 2018
	Dissecting Returns
	P/E Ratio
UPDATE I	Secular Stock Market P/E	Dec 2018	Jan 7, 2019
	The P/E Summary (Quarterly)	Sep 2018	Oct 9, 2018
UPDATE I	The P/E Report (Annual)	Dec 2018	Jan 7, 2019
	The Truth About P/Es
UPDATE II	P/E: Forward Operating Averages 12	2018	Jan 18, 2019
	Nightmare on Wall Street	2016	Feb 5, 2017
UPDATE II	P/E Ratios & Inflation	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE I	P/E Ratio vs. Dividend Yield	2018	Jan 7, 2019
	Natural Pinnacle to P/Es
	Earnings & Economy
UPDATE II	Earnings Trends: History & Future	Jan 2018	Jan 18, 2019
	Converging on the Horizon	2015	Feb 8, 2016
	EPS Reality	2017	Feb 3, 2018
	It’s Not the Economy	2017	Feb 3, 2018
	Beyond The Horizon: Redux 2011
	Back to the Horizon		Dec 2008
	Beyond the Horizon
	Siegel’s Shortfall
	Market Volatility
UPDATE I	Stock Market Volatility: An Erratic Cycle	Dec 2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE I	Significant Swings	2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE I	Stock Market Returns & Volatility	Dec 2018	Jan 7, 2019
UPDATE I	Volatility in Perspective	Dec 2018	Jan 7, 2019
	Calm Before the Storm
	A Minsky Review
	Investment Implications
RECENT	The Big Shift: A Secular Realignment of Profits and P/E
RECENT	Serious Implications: Forecast Skew Over the Next Decade
FAVORITE	Reconciliation Principle: Returns & Forecasts Must Add Up
	Exit from Wonderland
UPDATE I	Half & Half: Why Rowing Works	2018	Jan 7, 2019
	The Impact of Losses
	Game Changer		Apr 5, 2013
	Row, Not Sail
	Portfolio Mismanagement
	Markowitz Misunderstood
	Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles
	Rowing vs. the Roller Coaster
	Looming Crisis
UPDATE II	Up & Down Capture Graph	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	Up & Down Capture	2018	Jan 18, 2019
	Impact of Rebalancing

Interest Rates

		Updated Through	Last Update
	Interest Rate History
UPDATE II	Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	The Yield Curve, the Fed, & P/Es	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	The 6/50 Rule	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	The 10-Year Treasury Note	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	Interest Rates & Inflation	2018	Jan 18, 2019
	Dynamic History	2018	Feb 3, 2018
	Investment Implications
UPDATE II	Ladder in a Bear	2018	Jan 18, 2019
UPDATE II	Climb the Ladder	2018	Jan 18, 2019
	Surfing the Roll
	Other
	Grossly Misunderstood Debt

Economy

	Updated Through	Last Update
Economic Growth
Recessions By Decade: Record on the Horizon
Economic Cycle Dashboard
Worst Recovery Since…Ever?	2017	Feb 3, 2018
GDP – Real Economic Growth	2017	Feb 3, 2018
GDP & Economic Productivity	2017	Feb 3, 2018
GDP & Population Growth	2017	Feb 3, 2018
General Economy
GDP – Nominal: 10-Year Rolling Components	2017	Feb 3, 2018
GDP – Nominal & EPS	2017	Feb 3, 2018

Recent Additions

Suggestions Welcome

Note

Stock Market

Interest Rates

Economy

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