Destitute at 80: Retiring in Secular Cycles

There has never been a thirty-year period for the stock market during which investors have lost money; yet there have quite a few thirty-year periods that have bankrupted senior citizens who were relying upon their stock portfolios for retirement income. Although history provides an average outcome across a wide variety of market conditions, it is relevant to consider only those periods with characteristics similar to those we see today. Given the significant impact of valuation on returns, valuation will be a major driver for today’s investors and retirees.