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Financial Market and Economic Research

Crestmont Research develops provocative insights on the financial markets, including the stock market, interest rates, and investment philosophy. The primary focus of the research is concentrated on the drivers and characteristics of secular stock market cycles, the impact of inflation and interest rates on the stock and bond markets, and the conceptual approach toward investment strategy applicable to the current market environment.

The intention of the research and its publication on this site is to present rational perspectives based upon a diligent analysis of historical data. Through organizing the data logically, information is created. Through understanding and developing perspectives on the information, knowledge is generated. With knowledge, one can then start to make informed decisions.

Crestmont’s research is intended to be observation-based rather than prediction-oriented. It intends to provide information and perspectives to assist in rational decisions. The research does not provide predictions or recommendations on investment alternatives, although you may find the implications quite compelling.

Harry Markowitz, Nobel Prize co-recipient for Modern Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model, published “Portfolio Selection” in The Journal of Finance during 1952. He led with: “The process of selecting a portfolio may be divided into two stages. The first stage starts with observation and experience and ends with beliefs about the future performances of available securities. The second stage starts with the relevant beliefs about future performances and ends with the choice of the portfolio. This paper is concerned with the second stage.” As Markowitz emphasizes, it is the investor’s responsibility to use “observation and experience” to develop “beliefs about the future performances.” Crestmont’s research is developed to provide practical insights for investors that don’t have 75 to 100 years to wait for historical average returns.