Crestmont Research develops provocative insights on the financial markets, including the stock market, interest rates, and investment philosophy. The research focuses on the drivers and characteristics of secular stock market cycles, the impact of the inflation rate and interest rates on the stock and bond markets, and a conceptual approach toward investment strategy that is applicable to the current market environment.
Unexpected Returns: A Course of Insights
Unexpected Returns: A Course of Insights is an online, on-demand video-based presentation series delivered by Ed Easterling that discusses key concepts from his book Unexpected Returns.
He combines the teaching style from his experience as an Adjunct Professor with the edutainment style from his ongoing experience as an industry speaker. The presentations use Crestmont’s thought-provoking research and dynamic color graphics to deliver insights about the causes and principles driving secular stock market cycles.
This presentation series includes six classes describing concepts of long-term stock market cycles, investment returns, market valuation, volatility, compounded returns, and investment approach. Each class runs approximately 30 minutes; the series is available as a full course or in two-class parts. The first two classes address the basic principles that drive the variation in stock market returns over decade-long periods, the components of stock market returns, implications about the inflation rate, and the impact of volatility on compounded returns. The second two classes address details behind changes in market valuation resulting from financial and economic tradeoffs, changes in the inflation rate, and indicators of the current environment for long-term returns. The third two classes address two of the popular investment approaches, relative returns and absolute returns, and the implications for investment strategy.
The objective of the research and its publication on this site is to present rational perspectives based upon a diligent analysis of historical data. Through understanding and developing perspectives on that data, vital new knowledge is formulated. Armed with that knowledge, we can then start to make informed decisions.
Crestmont’s research is intended to be observation-based rather than prediction-oriented. Its purpose is to provide information and perspectives to assist in rational decision-making. The research does not provide predictions or recommendations on investment alternatives, although you may find its implications for investment strategy quite compelling.
The overall market is highly volatile and affected by generally long secular cycles. You may wonder is it worth the risk?. Further, returns in the stock market depend upon the level of and trend for the inflation rate. In this section, you’ll gain insights toward the obvious question: what can we expect from here?.
Ten, twenty, or even thirty years is not long enough to ensure successful returns in the stock market. Current and recent levels for the P/E ratio suggest that expected returns will be disappointing for many investors. Pundits are professing, “Returns will improve when the economy begins to recover!” But hope is not a strategy.
Though traditional wisdom relates P/E ratios to interest rates, that relationship works only in periods of positive inflation. With the risk of higher inflation or deflation looming on the horizon, the analysis titled “P/E Ratios & Inflation” will clarify that P/E’s are driven by inflation. As well, see “Stock Market Returns & Volatility” for a surprisingly strong relationship between the level of volatility in the stock market and its direction.
“Financial Physics” represents the interconnected relationships among several key elements in the economy and the financial markets–relationships that determine the stock market’s overall direction. This presentation will provide a highly provocative and insightful perspective on the relationship of the economy (the source of wealth) and the equity markets (the measure of equity wealth). Whereas other presentations present analyses of historical data to provide perspectives, this analysis is dedicated to exploring the fundamental factors and economic relationships that drive trends and valuations in the financial markets.
Harry Markowitz, Nobel Prize co-recipient for Modern Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model, published “Portfolio Selection” in The Journal of Finance during 1952. He led with a critical point: “The process of selecting a portfolio may be divided into two stages. The first stage starts with observation and experience and ends with beliefs about the future performances of available securities. The second stage starts with the relevant beliefs about future performances and ends with the choice of the portfolio. This paper is concerned with the second stage.” As Markowitz emphasizes, it is the investor’s responsibility to use “observation and experience” to develop “beliefs about the future performances.” Crestmont’s research is developed to provide practical insights for investors who don’t have 75 to 100 years to wait for historical average returns.
Short-term interest rates (one year or less) are generally determined by the Federal Reserve; long-term interest rate yields are driven by the inflation rate or inflation expectations. The relationship between interest rates and inflation was not evident before the 1960′s. Current research now suggests implications for the future.
Though there are occasional, very limited periods that break the general rule, Crestmont Research’s The 6/50 Rule states: “Interest rates will change by at least 50 basis points (0.5%) within the next 6 months.” There’s almost 50 years of history–virtually without exception–in our favor. Chances are that the change will be a good bit more than that, too. See the details and charts titled “The 6/50 Rule.”
Uncertainties about the economy pose a unique crossroads for the current decade and beyond. Further research and analysis is needed to assess conventional wisdom for myth and insight.
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Before you read any how-to investment books or seek financial advice, read Unexpected Returns, the essential resource for investors and investment professionals who want to understand how and why the financial markets are not the same now as they were in 1980s and 1990s. In addition to explaining the fundamentals, this award-winning book takes you on a graphic journey through seasons of the market, tying together economics and finance to explain the stock market’s cycles. Using comprehensive full-color charts and graphs, it offers an in-depth exploration of what has changed over the past five years – and what you can do about it to avoid disappointment with your investments. This unique combination of investment science and investment art will enable you to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the current financial markets. Based on years of meticulous research, Unexpected Returns provides the sensible conclusions that will drive your future investment choices and give you the confidence to rely on your investment outlook, whatever your financial strategy.
Secular Stock Market Insights
Probable Outcomes continues the Crestmont Research tradition of extensive full-color charts and graphs that enable investors and advisors to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the stock market. This book’s empowering insights prepare you to take action during the current period of below-average returns. The unique combination of investment science and investment art explores the market from several perspectives and addresses the significant implications for a broad range of investors. Beyond concepts, Ed Easterling delivers a dramatic analysis of the likely course for the stock market over the 2010 decade. Investors and advisors will benefit from this timely outlook and its message of reasonable expectations and value-added investing. This essential resource offers a compelling understanding of the key fundamental principles that drive the stock market. Derived from years of meticulous research, Probable Outcomes provides sensible conclusions that will guide your future investment choices and allow you to invest with confidence, whatever your financial strategy.
Crestmont Research primarily develops and publishes research in the form of charts and graphs to provide investors and market spectators with poignant perspectives on the financial markets. The objective is to impart insights about the reality of the markets. Occasionally, articles are written when graphics would not be appropriate or when requested by specific publications or clients. Crestmont has retained all rights to the following articles and welcomes inquiries regarding publication in periodicals and newsletters.
We solicit your insights, whether supporting or contradicting our presentations. They will assist in furthering our research. Contact us at Info[at]CrestmontResearch.com, or use this contact form.