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Recent Additions
As information is added to the site, this page will list the significant
additions and changes for returning visitors to quickly identify the new information. New developments are expected to be included
periodically. Suggestions for new or expanded research initiatives are
welcomed at:
Info@CrestmontResearch.com
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Updates and new additions will generally be posted quarterly, except
following year-end when annual updates are posted monthly in sets during the
first quarter.
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Stock
Market
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2007 UPDATES!
Part I
Secular Cycles
Significant Swings
Distorted Averages
Generation Returns
It's Not The Economy
P/E Ratios & Inflation
Stock Market Returns & Volatility
Stock Market Yo-Yo
Dividend Yield vs. P/E
Components Of Returns
Secular Cycles Explained
EPS Reality
Gazing At The Future
Part II
Stock Market Matrix
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June 30, 2008
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Back To The
Horizon
Earnings had been increasing at double-digit growth rates
for five consecutive years from 2002 through 2006—although many agreed
that earnings growth might be slowing, it was beyond almost everyone’s
foreseeable horizon that earnings might actually experience a decline.
Yet, before anyone knew it, the end of the cycle was in the rear-view
mirror rather than beyond the distant horizon. This article is a
follow-up to “Beyond The Horizon: The EPS Cycle” (located in the Stock
Market section). Has the forward P/E, which was recently an inviting 16,
suddenly become a much richer valuation near 20?
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June 30, 2008
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Volatility In
Perspective
Who or what is rocking the boat? Market volatility has
recently surged; investors have had to hold on and try to figure out
what this means. Is the current level of volatility “normal” or is it
extreme? The purpose of this presentation is to graphically put
volatility into historical perspective. This will be updated every other
month or so until volatility again falls to levels of investor
disinterest…which could be a while if history is a guide for what can be
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June 30, 2008
Updates
Primary Version
Published Version
(includes Markowitz Misunderstood)
Click Here |
Waiting For
Average
The long-term average return from the stock market is
10.4%. As the earliest baby boomers are now beginning to retire, they
will be relying upon their investments for income. The latest boomers
have two more decades to compound their savings into a retirement
payload. At 10%, boomers young and old—so to speak—have a good chance of
a secure retirement. Yet, from today, what length of time is needed to
assure the long-term average return?
NEVER—investors from today will never achieve the long-term average
return. Not in ten years, twenty years, fifty years, or even the almost
eighty
years that represent the most recognized long-term average return.
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Interest
Rates
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2007 UPDATES!
Part I
Interest Rates & Inflation
The 6/50 Rule
The 10-Year Treasury Note
The Yield Curve, The Fed, & P/Es
Bond Yields: Reasonable Expectations
Part II
Dynamic History
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Hedge
Funds
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2006 UPDATES
Hedge Fund Industry Summary
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Financial
Physics
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2007
UPDATES!
Financial Physics Presentation
Putting It Together
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Unexpected
Returns
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Ed Easterling
Contributing
Author
Excerpt From
Chapter 5
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