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Update: Fourth Printing Shipped!!
Update: Japanese Translation Available
If you like Crestmont's research, you'll love Unexpected Returns!
The book was developed to explore the messages of the research published on
this website, and includes more than 60 full-color graphics as well as new
material developed to highlight key issues. It is written in a style
that is directed to casual investors as well as sophisticated scholars. See the bottom of this
page for a listing of the Table of Contents. Unexpected
Returns is now available internationally; ask your local bookseller or
order online.
Unexpected Returns:
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Why?
Why is the stock market acting differently
in the 2000s than
in the 1980s and 1990s?
Before you read any how-to investment books or seek financial
advice, read Unexpected Returns, the essential resource for investors and
investment professionals who want to understand how and why the financial
markets are not the same now as they were in 1980s and 1990s. In addition to
explaining the fundamentals, this award winning book takes you on a graphic journey
through seasons of the market, tying together economics and finance to
explain the stock market’s cycles. Using comprehensive full-color charts and
graphs, it offers an in-depth exploration of what has changed over the past
five years — and what you can do about it to avoid disappointment with your
investments. This unique combination of investment science and investment
art will enable you to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational
view of the current financial markets. Based on years of meticulous
research, Unexpected Returns provides the sensible conclusions that will drive your future investment
choices and give you the confidence to rely on your investment outlook,
whatever your financial strategy.
Acclaim For Unexpected Returns
“Ed Easterling has given the world of investing the single
best, easy-to-read, study of stock market cycles of which I know. He lays
out a path for you to find your own Unexpected Returns, showing you how to
confidently navigate the waters of market volatility. Serious investors will
devour this book and profit. It should be required reading for investment
professionals.”
— John Mauldin, President,
Millennium Wave Investments;
author of Bull’s Eye Investing
“Unexpected Returns provides a broad, deep, and
provocative exploration of the factors that determine stock market
investment returns over a person’s lifetime. Of special interest to me, as a
Federal Reserve policy advisor on monetary policy, is Easterling’s
exploration of the critical role of low and stable inflation as a key
determinant of stock market performance.”
— Harvey Rosenblum, Senior Vice President
and
Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
“Unexpected Returns is at once a penetrating analysis of
more than a century of stock market experience and a realistic guide to how
we may expect the markets to perform in the years ahead. Easterling’s
findings and conclusions are grounded on the best economic and financial
thinking of our time. This is a book for the serious investor and student of
the markets.”
— Richard Sylla, Henry Kaufman Professor
of the History
of Financial Institutions and Markets, Stern School of
Business, New York University; co-author of A History
of Interest Rates
“The stock market is one of the few places on earth where
people become more excited to buy when things are expensive, and more
anxious to sell when things are cheap. Ed Easterling has penned a masterful
accounting about why this is so wealth-destructive, presented without
preconceived notion or bias.”
— Bill Mann, Senior Editor, Investing, The
Motley Fool
“People are accustomed to the vagaries of market cycles.
Far too few realize that these are subsumed within secular bull and bear
markets, spanning decades not years. Ed Easterling has done a fine job of
describing how these long cycles work and how the investor can plan
investment strategies accordingly.”
— Rob Arnott, Chairman, Research
Affiliates, LLC;
Editor, Financial Analysts Journal
"If you have financial exposure to the stock market, Unexpected Returns
will forever change your outlook and will certainly revise your investment
approach."
Reader Comments
"I have read the book three times. Then I highlighted the
important parts. Then I underlined the most important parts. I am still
enjoying it and learning.”
— Allen N.
"This book is truly a remarkable account of the markets
history. Very well written and compelling research that all investors must
understand.”
— Mike S.
"I enjoyed [Unexpected
Returns] immensely and believe it will help me be a much better prepared
investor…”
— Jan C.
"GREAT BOOK! (Yes, I'm shouting).”
— Miles H.
"Your book is wonderful, and I have already purchased several
copies and sent it to clients.”
— Scott S.
"one of the most insightful "big picture" books about the
stock market ever written...”
— Mark S.
"the most elegantly structured treatment of the subject that
I've seen to date...”
— Zeke A.
"a must read for investment managers and their clients. ”
— Lorenz W.
"Whether bull or bear...a must read for all investors.”
— Rodney M.
"I loved your book…a must read…it is definitely one of
the best investment books I’ve read.”
— Vitaliy K.
"very thought-provoking….An excellent contribution to
the field”
— Peter B.
"Written for the non-technical reader but doesn't talk
down…very friendly to read. He doesn't claim to be a seer, he simply does a
brilliant job of laying out piece by piece, how to calculate the future of
the stock market.”
— Kevin H.
"Your work put it all together, and in my humble opinion
is a "must read" for any serious financial advisor.”
— Marcel E.
"What a great book--have enjoyed every page.”
— Don P.
"...very illuminating and thought provoking...one of
those “must read” books for future generations.”
— Peter K.
"extremely valuable, and rarely presented
elsewhere...great service to public at large exposing some of the investment
myths.”
— Sreen R.
"...made important contributions to any reader's
understanding of the role of P/E ratios in future market performance."
— Gerald G.
"First of all, GREAT book...."
— Richard H.
"I am extremely captivated with the insights in Unexpected
Returns."
— Lanny H., Ph. D.
"I'm reading the book for the second time... Every time I
pick it up and can't put it down."
— Mike S.
"You guys should get a copy of his book. It is fascinating
and fun reading!!"
— Chris B.
"I've read many many investment books however, yours
is one of the best written works I've had the opportunity to read."
— Bill M.
"...changed my business and outlook for risk management like
nothing else in my 17 year career!"
— Joe M.
"I am having a great time reading Unexpected Returns..."
— Mike W.
"This is an excellent book...It is a must read for any
investor and financial adviser. "
— John H.
"I am having a great time reading Unexpected Returns..."
— Mike W.
"I know that I will be a lot more careful with my
investment choices after reading this book."
— Richard M.
"I read with fascination your book. Great material."
— Bill S.
"This is a book everyone interested in the stock market
needs to read... Excellent charts and superb explanations."
— Greg M.
"Thank you again, I can not tell you how much I enjoyed
your book."
— David S.
"It was a great read! Your insights on Financial
Physics and historical P/E analysis influenced my thinking...."
— Spencer R.
"[The] book pulls together many of the mysteries against
which I have struggled over the years. ...provides careful and
detailed analysis, presented in a logical and understandable fashion -- with
many charts and tables. I heartily recommend the book..."
— Fred G.
"We had used your Stock Market Matrix at the office, and
were impressed with the quality and scope of the project. Thanks for your
insightful book."
— Gene F.
"I enjoyed the book, and refer to it often...thanks
again for an excellent book and some of the best web resources that I have
seen..."
— Tom B.
"I am a HUGE SUPPORTER of “Unexpected Returns”...
Keep up the fantastic analysis."
— Jim Y.
"Unexpected Returns is great! ...is nice to see some
good data driven analysis on market behavior and future expectations."
— Toby B.
"First, let me congratulate you on Unexpected Returns.
It is the best basic text on modern investment management I have
encountered. I plan to use it as my primary text..."
— Prof. Ken V.
"You really made a great work with your book
Unexpected Returns. I think it is the most useful book I've read
for years."
— Loic B.
"I only wish I had purchased this book when John Mauldin
first recommended it months ago."
— Joel D.
"...an unexpected pleasure to read! Free from fluff and
filler and based on solid research, the book sets a new standard for texts
of its kind. Another unexpected plus were the color charts and graphs that
make it easy for the reader to grasp key concepts."
— James M.
"I have read your book, “Unexpected Returns” and
it is an excellent piece of scholarship."
— John C.
"The book was terrific. I learned a great deal that I did not
know, and appreciated the style, which repeats the key things, so that you
never lose sight of them."
— Peter W.
"Your book, “Unexpected Returns” is absolutely
outstanding."
— Kelly C.
"I am the chief market strategist at [...] in NYC, have read
your book and find that the high quality and informative data that you put
out on your web site is some of the better material on wall street!"
— Michael S.
"I have read "Unexpected Returns" and found it very
insightful and useful."
— Nick P.
"I found Unexpected Returns one of the best investment
writings ever, including all the CFA materials I had to master."
— Garry A.
"I have read and then purchased a copy of Unexpected
Returns for my finance/economic library. Your research and findings have
filled a big gap in my efforts to put the "puzzle" together."
— David L.
"I really am enjoying your book. It is very informative
and educational. I realize now that it will take absolute investment
strategies to be successful."
— Paul P.
"Unexpected Returns is not yet another investing
book parroting the same stale insights you have read or heard discussed
dozens of times before. Easterling’s research tells us something new.
Easterling’s research matters. Easterling’s insights are breakthrough
insights."
— Rob B.
"Excellent book on the market. It is not a 'How to get
rich fast' book, but one that explains the dynamics of the stock market and
how the returns correlate. The tables, graphs, and figures are extremely
well done and the book is well laid out..."
— D. B.
"Unexpected Returns...is one of the best,
easy-to-read, studies of stock market cycles of which I know."
— Hans W.
"A masterful discussion of the issues, very methodical,
clear and compelling. And such a beautiful book, too. Well
done!"
— Jonathan E.
"Unexpected Returns brought together many of the
same concepts and strategies I use in my investment management. Your book is
excellent."
— Mike W.
"Your book has me captivated. I am half way through it
and will enjoy finishing it."
— Lea J.
"This book brings fresh and unconventional ideas to the
table...Many books advocate the buy and hold strategy. I think everyone
should at least read some books that challenge this idea, and this one is a
very good place to start."
— Joao F.
"I just finished reading “Unexpected Returns” and
wanted to thank you for writing an absolutely fabulous book. You have
succeeded in putting basic economic and financial concepts together into a
consistent, simple and completely rational framework. I have read over 100
books on investing over the past 10 years and there are some truly excellent
books out there. However, in my opinion, “Unexpected Returns” is the
best of them all."
— Bruce S.
"Thank you for writing that fantastic book. It's
too good. I hope no other investors read it (I like to have an edge)."
— Jeff H.
"I love your book "Unexpected Returns"! It is
without a doubt the best book I have read on the stock market and I have
read many of them!"
— Chris N.
"Great book and excellent analysis!"
— Ray G.
"I very much enjoyed Unexpected Returns and refer to
it as a valuable reference tool, recommending that my colleagues read it to
help aid their understanding of the markets."
— Matt R.
